{
  "page": "cto-entry-timing",
  "title": "Should you buy a pump.fun CTO at the alert, wait for confirmation, or bid below it?",
  "updated": "2026-09-11T05:05:00.131741+00:00",
  "source": "https://belphor.com/data/cto-entry-timing",
  "license": "CC BY 4.0",
  "groups": {
    "all": [
      {
        "k": "1: buy at the alert",
        "n": 155,
        "dead": 13.5,
        "hit50": 44.5,
        "hit100": 28.4,
        "fill_pct": 100,
        "med_peak_x": 1.42,
        "avg_peak_pct": 115
      }
    ],
    "bid": [
      {
        "k": "5: bid 10% under, 1 hour window",
        "n": 52,
        "dead": 26.9,
        "hit50": 53.8,
        "hit100": 30.8,
        "fill_pct": 33.5,
        "med_peak_x": 1.61,
        "avg_peak_pct": 109
      },
      {
        "k": "6: bid 15% under, 1 hour window",
        "n": 43,
        "dead": 23.3,
        "hit50": 53.5,
        "hit100": 34.9,
        "fill_pct": 27.7,
        "med_peak_x": 1.72,
        "avg_peak_pct": 127
      },
      {
        "k": "7: bid 25% under, 1 hour window",
        "n": 29,
        "dead": 27.6,
        "hit50": 51.7,
        "hit100": 37.9,
        "fill_pct": 18.7,
        "med_peak_x": 1.56,
        "avg_peak_pct": 99
      },
      {
        "k": "8: bid 15% under, 3 hour window",
        "n": 62,
        "dead": 21,
        "hit50": 54.8,
        "hit100": 35.5,
        "fill_pct": 40,
        "med_peak_x": 1.69,
        "avg_peak_pct": 130
      },
      {
        "k": "9: bid 25% under, 3 hour window",
        "n": 45,
        "dead": 24.4,
        "hit50": 48.9,
        "hit100": 37.8,
        "fill_pct": 29,
        "med_peak_x": 1.39,
        "avg_peak_pct": 152
      }
    ],
    "entry": [
      {
        "k": "1: buy at the alert",
        "n": 155,
        "dead": 13.5,
        "hit50": 44.5,
        "hit100": 28.4,
        "fill_pct": 100,
        "med_peak_x": 1.42,
        "avg_peak_pct": 115
      },
      {
        "k": "2: buy 30 minutes after the alert",
        "n": 155,
        "dead": 10.3,
        "hit50": 40,
        "hit100": 25.8,
        "fill_pct": 100,
        "med_peak_x": 1.32,
        "avg_peak_pct": 103
      },
      {
        "k": "3: buy 60 minutes after the alert",
        "n": 155,
        "dead": 9.7,
        "hit50": 36.1,
        "hit100": 25.8,
        "fill_pct": 100,
        "med_peak_x": 1.28,
        "avg_peak_pct": 97
      },
      {
        "k": "4: buy at 60 minutes only if the coin held within 15%",
        "n": 97,
        "dead": 8.2,
        "hit50": 33,
        "hit100": 19.6,
        "fill_pct": 62.6,
        "med_peak_x": 1.26,
        "avg_peak_pct": 79
      }
    ],
    "firsthour": [
      {
        "k": "1: held within 15% in the first hour",
        "n": 97,
        "dead": 6.2,
        "hit50": 47.4,
        "hit100": 29.9,
        "fill_pct": 62.6,
        "med_peak_x": 1.44,
        "avg_peak_pct": 125
      },
      {
        "k": "2: dipped more than 15% in the first hour",
        "n": 58,
        "dead": 25.9,
        "hit50": 39.7,
        "hit100": 25.9,
        "fill_pct": 37.4,
        "med_peak_x": 1.27,
        "avg_peak_pct": 99
      }
    ]
  },
  "window_days": 45
}